Is nuclear Pakistan heading for a repeat of Iran revolution? Can Obama face what Jimmy Carter faced?
Balaji Reddy
Oct. 18, 2009

Americans heavily influence the nuclear-armed country. They are forced to follow the American military needs. Population of Pakistan is divided. Some favor Pakistan to be free from terrorists and Islamic extremism especially Talibans. Some in Pakistan vehemently oppose the American influence. Currently both India and Pakistan Governments are heavily influenced by the needs of the American foreign policies. Pakistani intelligence organization is also divided. Some are in the favor of the current status quo position of following American requests. Some believe Pakistan must get out of American and Indian influences.

Iran’s Shah was in power for quite some time. Iranian Mullah’s finally toppled the regime with a nasty revolution and kept American diplomats captive for quite some time forcing US president Jimmy Carter out of his office as he lost to Ronald Reagan early eighties.

Can that repeat in Pakistan?

Pakistan Army is reluctantly perusing their civilian Government’s request of going after the Taliban and Al-Queda in South Waziristan and elsewhere. They are fighting the Islamic extremists across the country and the border regions with Afghanistan. But the support for this action within their own people is limited. The support for Taliban and to some extent Al-Queda is wide spread in Pakistan. Can the Mullah’s of Pakistan topple the Government, take over the country and create a diplomatic nightmare for President Obama?

President Obama should watch the situation very closely. The fraud by Karzai in Afghan election is the first indication of trouble in the region. It just shows how unpopular the current Karzai regime in Afghanistan is.

Pakistani military is heavily influenced now by the intelligence agency ISI of Pakistan. General Kayani of Pakistan is a former ISI chief. No one knows what he will do in the next several months or years. For now Pakistan is determined to keep Americans happy. But inside Pakistani political theatre things may be changing very fast.

President Obama must avoid at any cost a repeat of Iranian revolution in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The situation needs diplomatic and strategic attention, not a military solution.

If a repeat of Iranian revolution in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the net gainers will be Al-Queda, Taliban, the Republican party in America, and of course the Mullahs of Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan.

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