Deteriorating labour market and higher food and energy prices are the root causes for sharp drop in US consumer confidence – but the gloom and doom is ending temporarily
Sam Adelton
Mar. 25, 2008

US consumer confidence tumbled to a five-year low in March. The Conference Board’s confidence index fell from 76.4 in February 64.5 this month, compared with economists’ expectations of a much lighter drop to about 74, as US consumers fretted over the deteriorating labour market and higher food and energy prices.

Many economists now fear a deep recession if not an outright depression. But in the middle of all these gloom and doom, analytics and quanitative models point to a bottoming of the downside risks atleat temporarily.

The way US Dollar, lumber futures and the stock market has absorbed the 100% negative news on the economy and inflation in recent weeks, it seems the gloom and doom will end very soon.

A cyclical bottom is in place although a much longer term secular downturn is still in place.

Deteriorating labour market and higher food and energy prices are the root causes for sharp drop in US consumer confidence – but the gloom and doom is ending temporarily
Sam Adelton
The way US Dollar, lumber futures and the stock market has absorbed the 100% negative news on the economy and inflation in recent weeks, it seems the gloom and doom will end very soon.
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What is next for dollar, gold, realestate, bonds, commodities and stocks?
Neal Henderson
Some of the depressed commodities will rise fiercely. Examples are lumber, cattle, hogs and so on. Industrial metals and precious metals are now in an intermediate term (few years) bear market that can take prices down by 50 to 60% from the top.
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World wonders if America has the courage to liberate Tibet from Chinese communists as Pelosi meets Dalai Lama
Sonia Joshi
Chinese atrocities are far worse in Tibet than Saddam in Iraq. It is continuing for almost half a century. Americans talk a lot but shies away from doing anything about it.
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ECB least, Bank of England most and Federal Reserve sort of interested in intervening in the Mortgage Securities Markets to halt housing collapse
Kirsten McLauren
A joint intervention will buy US (mainly) mortgage backed securities with dollar. That helps in two ways. It creates a possible boom in real estate market. It also lifts dollar from the slump.
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Real estate and lumber futures ready to rally and explode on the upside as Fannie, Freddie surplus capital requirement is eased
Nancy Sensua
his allows Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy more than $2 trillion of new mortgage. Regulators for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac did something that will have a major impact on the residential real estate.
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The rally in US dollar has just started as housing and mortgage markets stabilize
Trisha Rowe
The Fed is wrong again as usual. The economy is stabilizing. The super liquidity it injected in the system is creating the stage for a second real estate bubble after bursting of the first.
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Stocks, dollar, real estate bullish intermediate term – commodities, gold, metals, energy and bonds bearish
Karen Zuba
Neither McCain nor Obama will engage in ruthless spending like that of Bush Administration. America will again prove that it is a genuine superpower with world strongest currency, most talented workforce, and strongest military might.
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